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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still