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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd